Fig. 1
Illustration of real colony growth and summary of microenvironment model inference. a A real colony growing on a nutrient rich agar. b Schematic illustration of the microenvironment model. c Illustration of the alternative metabolic switching routes (hypotheses H1,H2, and H3) and summary of microenvironment model inference. The hypothesis H1 contains both possible transitions from the glucose state to the quiescent state and the hypotheses H2 and H3 can be obtained by removing one of the routes (these hypotheses correspond to setting the switching rate parameters β2 and β3 in the model to zero, respectively). Each hypothesis is accompanied with the posterior probability and the estimated logarithmic marginal likelihood (shown in parentheses after hypothesis). The estimated marginal posterior predictive distributions are illustrated using 99% quantiles (light blue region) as well as mean (black line) and median (blue line). The experimental data (total cell mass) is illustrated using red color